Gun Control Policy and Public Safety: Evidence from U.S. and International Contexts
Bachelor's Thesis · ~74 pages · English
Abstract
This thesis evaluates the relationship between gun control policies and public safety outcomes, examining evidence from U.S. state-level variation and international comparative analysis. The research assesses the effectiveness of specific policy instruments—background check systems, waiting periods, red flag laws, assault weapons bans, and safe storage requirements—on homicide, suicide, and mass shooting rates. Drawing on quasi-experimental studies exploiting natural policy variation, the thesis finds that comprehensive background checks and red flag laws show the strongest evidence of reducing firearm deaths, while the constitutional constraints imposed by the Second Amendment's current interpretation significantly limit policy options available to U.S. lawmakers.
1. Introduction
The United States experiences firearm death rates 4-25 times higher than other high-income countries, yet remains deeply divided over whether gun control policies would effectively reduce this toll without infringing constitutional rights. This debate intersects empirical questions about policy effectiveness with fundamental disagreements about individual liberty, self-defense rights, and government authority.
This thesis focuses primarily on the empirical questions: what does the evidence say about which gun policies reduce firearm deaths? The constitutional and normative dimensions provide essential context but the core analytical contribution is the evidence synthesis.
2. Policy Instruments Evaluated
The thesis evaluates eight major policy instruments:
1. Universal Background Checks - Extending existing federal requirements to private sales 2. Waiting Periods - Mandatory delays between purchase and possession 3. Red Flag / Extreme Risk Protection Orders - Temporary removal of firearms from individuals deemed at risk 4. Assault Weapons and High-Capacity Magazine Bans - Restrictions on military-style weapons 5. Safe Storage Requirements - Mandating secure firearm storage to prevent theft and unauthorized access 6. Permit-to-Purchase Laws - Requiring licenses before firearm acquisition 7. Stand Your Ground Laws - Expansion of self-defense rights in public spaces 8. Buyback Programs - Voluntary or mandatory firearm retrieval
3. Evidence Assessment
Evidence quality and effect estimates vary substantially across policy types:
• Permit-to-Purchase Laws - Strongest evidence base; Connecticut's law associated with 40% reduction in firearm homicide rates • Red Flag Laws - Associated with 7-14% reductions in firearm suicide rates in implementing states • Universal Background Checks - Moderate evidence of reducing gun trafficking when comprehensively enforced • Waiting Periods - Consistent evidence of reducing impulsive firearm suicides (7-11% reduction) • Assault Weapons Bans - Limited evidence of effectiveness; difficult to evaluate due to definitional challenges
International comparisons show that comprehensive licensing and storage requirements in peer nations correlate strongly with lower firearm death rates, suggesting combination approaches outperform single-policy interventions.
References
- [1]Webster, D., and J. S. Crifasi. "Effects of Missouri's Repeal of Its Handgun Purchaser Licensing Law on Homicides." Journal of Urban Health 91, no. 2 (2014): 293-302.
- [2]Everytown for Gun Safety. "The Role of Guns in Domestic Violence." Everytown Research & Policy, 2021.
- [3]Klarevas, L., A. Conner, and D. Hemenway. "The Effect of Large-Capacity Magazine Bans on High-Fatality Mass Shootings, 1990-2017." American Journal of Public Health 109, no. 12 (2019): 1754-1761.
- [4]Luca, M., D. Malhotra, and C. Poliquin. "The Impact of Mass Shootings on Gun Policy." Journal of Public Economics 181 (2020): 104083.
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